NBA Player Props to HAMMER (May 5th): Al Horford Masterclass

Sean Gardner/Getty Images

NBA Player Props to HAMMER (May 5th): Al Horford Masterclass


NBA Player Props to HAMMER (May 5th): Al Horford Masterclass


Sean Gardner/Getty Images

Al Horford 18+ Points/Rebounds/Assists -141 (Betfred Sportsbook)

Al Horford 20+ Points/Rebounds/Assists +115 (Betfred Sportsbook)

Al Horford 22+ Points/Rebounds/Assists +170 (Betfred Sportsbook)

Yes, I know Al Horford shot 1-of-8 last game from three, and yes he shot 2-of-10 from the field, but there is no chance he has two bad games in a row. 

You can bet on it, literally.

Let’s talk about his matchup. Joel Embiid is currently nursing a knee injury, but contrary to popular belief, Embiid playing actually helps this prop. After rewatching the film of every Horford game vs Embiid this year, the Philadelphia 76ers strategy on defense is to allow Embiid to roam the paint and leave Al Horford open at the three. Even Doc Rivers has emphasized the focus on Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and the attacking guards in the paint rather than Horford at the three.

This also works perfectly with the Boston Celtics offensive playstyle, having Marcus Smart, Malcolm Brogdon, Derrick White, and the others all uber-willing to pass to the open guy. For this reason exactly, we saw Horford take eight threes, which were mostly wide open last game. 

The 76ers have also utilized a zone defense at times, and that bodes well for Horford’s assist chances, as they send him to the elbow and let him operate the offense out of the pick and roll at times. He also is someone I’d consider a “team-first veteran” so for him to not get 3+ assists would be not smart to predict.

On the rebounding front, guarding Embiid helps his rebounding chances a ton as he’ll be involved in a ton of pick and rolls in the paint. If Embiid doesn’t play, the same applies as Paul Reed is either in the pick-and-roll, or sitting at the basket.

Here’s his last four games vs Philly if you want to visually see what we’re talking about.


Last 4 Games vs 76ers:

Game 2: 24 mins 2/10 FGA 1/8 3PA   7 REB  2 AST  5 PTS 14 PRA

Game 1: 30 mins 5/8 FGA   1/4 3PA   6 REB  3 AST  11 PTS  20 PRA

Regular Season: 35 mins 4/12 FGA 3/10 3PA 8 REB  6 AST  11 PTS  25 PRA

Regular Season: 32 mins 5/9 FGA   5/8 3PA   4 REB  2 AST  15 PTS  21 PRA

He’s going to play 30+ minutes, and he’ll be the center on the floor at the end of the fourth quarter, so the opportunity will be there. 

When you’re watching the Celtics vs 76ers game and see Al Horford catch fire from three, you’ll know who told you first.

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