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Dynasty Fantasy Football is back with rookie drafts and hibernating managers returning from their winter slumber. Fantasy analysts, on the other hand, have been focused on this class for months now. Most people are just beginning to catch up, and TWSN has you covered with daily fantasy football content.
With that in mind, I wanted to dive into some of the veteran risers and fallers from the 2023 NFL Draft. After breaking down the running back position last week, the pass catchers are up next. There have been some major shake-ups to both the wide receiver and tight end landscape. Below, I will analyze some of the biggest value movers and their dynasty fantasy football outlook.
Rashod Bateman – Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore chose to select a wide receiver in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft in Zay Flowers. A deep threat who is dynamic with the ball in his hands, he was one of the few bright spots in the Boston College offense. Despite his smaller size, too, he is a great deep ball tracker and contested catcher.
While adding a playmaker like Flowers is great for the Baltimore offense, this isn’t great news for current wide receiver Rashod Bateman. A former first round pick himself, he has struggled with injuries and a low-volume Ravens’ passing attack thus far in his career. Bateman actually got off to a hot start this past season, with 167 yards and two touchdowns in only two games. Unfortunately, a Lisfranc injury ended his 2022 campaign after only five games.
As the only viable fantasy option behind Mark Andrews, he actually had sleeper value in 2022. However, the addition of Odell Beckham Jr. and Zay Flowers will leave a lot of mouths to feed.. Other than 2021 when the Ravens were decimated by injuries at running back, they have finished bottom five in pass attempts per game the last four seasons. Although Greg Roman is gone, it’s hard to believe this becomes a prolific passing attack.
Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook: Faller
Kadarius Toney – Kansas City Chiefs
Rashee Rice was the only relevant skill position player the Chiefs selected in the 2023 NFL Draft. This is a big boost to all the Kansas City pass catchers because there isn’t a more wide-open depth chart in the NFL. No one on their current roster has ever finished as a top 40 fantasy receiver, or had over 700 yards.
This leaves Kadarius Toney as the most talented wide receiver on the roster, but he has had a rocky start to his career. Injuries and questions about his drive have plagued him though through two seasons. Furthermore, while the Kansas City offense is complicated, it was concerning he wasn’t able to become a regular part of the game plan in four months. Nearly every catch Toney had was a manufactured play design, which won’t provide consistent production.
Nonetheless, he is being drafted as a borderline WR3 in both dynasty and redraft leagues, which is a bargain considering his projected role. The risk is low at that point in the draft, and Toney could be the second target in the offense behind Travis Kelce. If he can manage to stay healthy, WR3 production will be his floor.
Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook: Riser
DK Metcalf – Seattle Seahawks
DK Metcalf failed to take a stranglehold on the target share in Seattle for years. That finally changed in the latter half of 2022, though. He out-targeted Tyler Lockett 89 to 64 since week eight, and was dominant in their playoff game against the San Francisco 49ers. I expected that to continue into 2023 and Metcalf to finally become the alpha in the offense.
Instead, the Seahawks added Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Zach Charbonnet in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft. This will give Seattle one of the most talented skill position groups across the entire NFL. However, it’s hard to figure out how all of these players return on their fantasy football value in 2023.
Geno Smith was fantastic in 2022, but Seattle was just middle of the pack in pass plays per game (14th). With Kenneth Walker and Charbonnet expected to be a featured part of the offense as well, it will likely remain that way. Metcalf will still be fantastic for dynasty players, but borderline WR1 production is once again his ceiling.
Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook: Faller
Gabe Davis – Buffalo Bills
Every fantasy analyst was anticipating the Bills would add a receiver in the draft to help out star quarterback Josh Allen. Fortunately for Gabe Davis, the only player of note was talented young tight end, Dalton Kincaid. Although Davis had a disappointing season in 2022, his role in the offense as the WR2 behind Stefon Diggs should be safe.
After a stellar 200-yard and four touchdown playoff performance in 2022 against Kansas City, many fantasy managers were expecting a breakout performance. In PPR leagues though, he managed only a WR36 finish, 836 yards, and four touchdowns. Furthermore, that production only came in a few games, as Davis only finished as a top 40 fantasy receiver six times.
It should be noted that Davis and the Bills say he was hampered by an ankle injury. Hopefully, that was the case because he looked slow at times last season, which prevented him from gaining separation. Regardless, while Davis was overpriced, he’s much more likely to come through for fantasy managers in 2023 as a WR4 in drafts.
Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook: Riser
Kyle Pitts – Atlanta Falcons
Kyle Pitts isn’t falling down my rankings because the Falcons added direct competition. However, Atlanta did draft Bijan Robinson with the eighth pick in the draft, which should be very concerning for all of their pass catchers. Already boasting one of the most run heavy offenses in the league, Arthur Smith may never pass the ball again. Robinson should be stepping into one of the largest workloads in the NFL behind an improving offensive line.
While this is fantastic for Robinson, this could further delay the breakout that Pitts’ fantasy managers have been waiting for. There isn’t anyone doubting his athletic ability or his fantasy potential. Pitts had the second most receiving yards all time for a rookie tight end and finished fifth in air yards in 2022 despite missing six games.
Unfortunately, target share and quarterback play will once again be an issue looking toward next season. Desmond Ridder is projected to lead what will be a very low-volume passing attack. With Drake London on the outside as well, Pitts could be boom and bust in fantasy once again. This will leave fantasy managers waiting one more year and hopefully a new quarterback in 2024.
Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook: Faller
For more fantasy football content, check out the links below!
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