There are always gems in the rough of every fantasy football draft. There are always players where their ADP (average draft position) does not match their expected or predicted performance and we see players exceed or fall below their ADP all the time. These players are criminally underrated and will explode past their ADP in 2023.
10- Jaylen Warren
Jaylen Warren might be the new gem that the Pittsburgh Steelers needed. Let’s talk about Najee Harris first. I was never a fan of Harris from coming in, and I still think he is overrated compared to other running backs around him. He thrives on a heavy workload which we saw in his rookie season, playing over 95% of the snaps that season and being involved in both the early downs as well as the passing game. However, Warren has shined on third downs and will continue to eat into Harris’ workload.
The Steelers are looking to be more and more of a committee, but they still have a lot of upside, no matter who gets the lead role. Based on ADP, I will be taking Warren all day with a similar upside to Harris with less risk as he can be a very late round flier whereas Harris is going at the back end of RB1 territory.
9- Kendre Miller
The New Orleans Saints backfield might seem like it’s difficult to figure out. You have Alvin Kamara who is undergoing some legal issues that could cause him to miss parts of the 2023 season. He’ll also be 28 by the time week one comes around, and he was nowhere near as efficient as we once saw him. In the last two years, we’ve seen him continue to decline more and more. The Saints then brought in Jamaal Williams, who is coming off a career year with the Detroit Lions in 2022. Let’s face it. Williams is a solid running back, but last season was very fluky. He was a touchdown monster with 17, and he may continue to eat into the Saints’ goal line work, however his usage and upside will be very limited.
Kendre Miller has day two draft capital, being drafted in round three, which tells me that the Saints actually have plans to implement Miller into their game. This is a fantastic situation for Miller, and he has the talent to make some noise right away. He’s an incredibly explosive back that has the perfect combination of talent and opportunity to make a splash in his rookie season.
8- Antonio Gibson
Antonio Gibson was once considered to be used like Christian McCaffrey, according to coach Ron Rivera. While that never ended up happening, we watched Gibson’s value plummet to his low ADP right now. This is his absolute floor. With JD McKissic gone, it’s only Gibson and Brian Robinson Jr. to start the season. I still believe in Gibson’s talent to at least be a reliable running back two with his upside in the passing game. We’re going to see him play a lot more and get more touches in an Eric Bieniemy offense over previous years, with Rivera being the main guy running the game. Bieniemy has aided offenses in the past and what he can do with certain talented players makes their game more versatile, and he brings that over to Washington now. His value is on the floor right now, and he’ll be a steal in 2023 drafts.
7- Javonte Williams
Javonte Williams is coming off an ACL injury and likely will not start the season, but that is no worry based on his current ADP value. Last season, he was going in the second round, and it wasn’t just the ACL injury that hurt his stock. He underperformed in the games that he did play, causing people to be completely out on him in 2023.
However, the ACL is the only thing I am worried about. If the Broncos take the injury slow, then he’ll end up exploding this season. The talent is still there and the offense will improve immensely. The Broncos couldn’t have been worse and with Sean Payton coming in to lead, the offense should rise with him. Javonte will be back in the first quarter of the season and with a few games getting completely acclimated, he could be a league winner, especially come playoff time.
6- Kadarius Toney
Kadarius Toney is easily the most talented wide receiver in that Kansas City Chiefs room and will continue to build chemistry and thrive with Patrick Mahomes throwing to him. Toney was incredible at the end of his run with the New York Giants as well as on the Chiefs and he will continue to improve this season. A wide receiver one for Mahomes is always valuable and even if he doesn’t overrule the bunch that they have right now, his value is so low that even a glimmer of upside will exceed his ADP. He’s a late round guy you could grab that could rise as high as a wide receiver two. He will probably be inconsistent, but the flashes he’ll show will make up for it.