7. Sam Howell – QB, WAS
ADP: 223.1, QB31
The Commanders have made it clear that they are not interested in another quarterback carousel this year, as they are committed to second-year quarterback Sam Howell as their starter. Just a few years ago, Howell was viewed as one of the top prospects in the 2021 Draft Class. He threw for 3,586 passing yards with a 68% completion rate, 30 TDs to just seven interceptions and added five rushing touchdowns in the 2020 season. However, his draft stock took a big hit after he struggled in his junior season at North Carolina.
That season, the Tar Heels lost a number of important pieces, including Javonte Williams and fellow Commander Dyami Brown. Sam Howell has solid upside as a dual-threat quarterback in Superflex formats, despite the fact that ended up falling to the 5th round in the 2022 NFL Draft. The Commanders seem to like him enough to give him a chance to prove his worth in 2023, so why not take a chance on him in the 14th or 15th round?
6. John Metchie III – WR, HOU
ADP: 195.0, WR69
I have to admit, I am inserting a bit of bias with this pick, as I am rooting for Metchie to succeed after he successfully beat Leukemia this year. However there is a lot to love about Metchie strictly as a football player, and missing his entire rookie year has caused his ADP to plummet. Metchie is an Alabama product, a school that has churned out electrifying WR prospects like Devonta Smith, Amari Cooper, and Julio Jones for years.
He was selected in the 2nd round of a loaded wide receiver class in the 2022 NFL Draft, and he is still just 22 years old, so he is certainly a hell of a lot more than just a great story. The Texans just traded Brandin Cooks to Dallas, so Metchie will have a chance to rake in a solid target share from his new quarterback, CJ Stroud.
5. Greg Dortch – WR, AZ
ADP: 271.2, WR127
Greg Dortch is a 24-year-old WR who has earned a solid role as the Cardinals’ slot receiver, yet has somehow become a forgotten asset in fantasy. With DeAndre Hopkins likely on the way out within the next year or so, drafting Dortch could pay off in a huge way at his painfully low ADP. Older players like Kenyan Drake, Julio Jones, Melvin Gordon, and Jonnu Smith are ranked over him but I can guarantee Dortch will far outproduce them in the coming years.
Dortch had stretches where he looked like the best complementary receiver on the Cardinals, especially with Rondale Moore and Marquise Brown struggling with injury issues in recent years. Dortch earned a contract extension this offseason and could prove to be a huge sleeper at his current ranking.
4. Jordan Love – QB, GB
ADP: 174.6, QB22
Call me crazy, but I believe in history repeating itself, and Rodgers’ move to join the Jets only pushed that narrative further. Love was a first-round pick in 2019, and there are a lot of unknowns surrounding him as he inherits the starting job from Aaron Rodgers in 2023. However, the Packers hit the jackpot with back-to-back Hall of Fame quarterbacks Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers, who am I to say they won’t go three for three?
With Love poised to take the reins for this great franchise, he certainly has the talent to follow in Rodgers’ and Favre’s footsteps. It might not be wise to draft based on history, but you could be kicking yourself if Love manages to do what Packers quarterbacks have done for 20+ years, developing into an MVP-level talent.
Love did manage to impress in 2022, despite a small sample size, erasing a 14-point deficit in relief of an injured Aaron Rodgers against the Eagles. He was viewed as a risky prospect in 2020, but has spent years developing behind an MVP in Aaron Rodgers, and with an offensive-minded head coach in Matt LaFleur.
“He’s either going to boom Patrick Mahomes style or bust in the NFL,” wrote Chris Trapasso of CBS Sports in 2020. If you are looking to land a steal in Superflex formats, Love could be the guy that people regret passing on for years to come.
3. Javonte Williams – RB, DEN
ADP: 36.3, RB13
Maybe it is a bit overzealous to call a top-35-ranked player a “steal” but Williams has the upside to shatter that ranking anyway. Williams could take until 2024 to fully recover from his torn ACL, but time is not an issue in a dynasty league. He was the best rookie running back in the NFL in 2021, and the Broncos have clearly shown faith in him becoming their three-down workhorse eventually.
For context, Breece Hall is coming off the same injury, yet is being drafted as a top 5 pick in dynasty formats. Williams may not be quite as versatile as Hall, but he was the best rookie running back in the league a short while ago. He could return elite value at a fraction of the cost of a guy like Hall.
2. Will Levis – QB, TEN
ADP: 168.1, QB32
Will Levis has become everybody’s favorite punching bag this draft season, which tends to happen in deep quarterback classes. Much like Justin Herbert and Josh Allen before him, Levis is a raw quarterback with exceptional arm talent, mobility, and size. However, he does not appear NFL-ready on tape compared to the rest of his quarterback class. He struggled with decision-making at Kentucky, but his raw talent was enough to make him the 33rd pick in the NFL Draft, where the Titans traded up to land him.
The NFL is all about the right situation and fit, and if the Titans’ coaching staff supports him well enough to develop into a starter, he could prove many doubters wrong at the NFL level. If he works hard enough on his game he might just convince all of Nashville to eat banana peels and put mayonnaise in their coffee, just like him.
1. Roschon Johnson – RB, CHI
ADP: 153.2, RB63
Roschon Johnson has garnered some buzz as perhaps the most underrated prospect in the 2023 draft class. Johnson, a former quarterback who transitioned to running back for the sake of his team, dominated for three years at Texas. He is 6 ‘2, 223 lb. frame makes him an ideal bruiser, but he is also an elusive runner with elite footwork and vision.
He was overshadowed by a generational talent in Bijan Robinson at Texas, but Johnson was the heartbeat of the team and their best leader according to head coach Steve Sarkisian. He could prove to be a huge steal if given an opportunity to lead a Chicago backfield that includes Khalil Herbert and D’Onta Foreman.