UFC 286: Best Bets

UFC 286: Best Bets


UFC 286: Best Bets


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Christian Leroy Duncan vs Dusko Todorovic 

Christian Duncan ML (-230)

Christian Duncan KO (-120) 

CageWarriors Middleweight Champion Christian Leroy Duncan will make his UFC debut this weekend at UFC 286 in front of a hometown English crowd. Duncan is an undefeated 7-0 pro, winning six of seven by knockout. He takes on Dusko Todorovic who is 3-3 in the UFC, losing two of three by knockout. Todorovic can grapple and will likely look to subdue some of Duncan’s explosive offense by taking him down, but he is by no means a submission specialist and has never secured more than two takedowns in a UFC fight. On the feet, Duncan will throw the book at Todorovic until he breaks. Spinning elbows, back kicks, flying knees; Duncan is the next of this new breed of elite athletes taking over MMA that will set up dynamic techniques with solid technical striking. I expect he will get his opponent out in the first two rounds to make a splash in his UFC debut in front of the home crowd. 

Lerone Murphy vs Gabriel Santos 

Lerone Murphy ML (-180) 

English Featherweight Lerone Murphy was originally scheduled to fight fellow UK prospect Nathaniel Wood, but instead will fight late replacement UFC newcomer Gabriel Santos. Santos is a well rounded, undefeated Brazilian fighter who most recently competed under the LFA banner. Santos is a bright prospect that I expect to have success in the UFC, however he faces a tall task in flying halfway across the world on a week’s notice to fight Lerone Murphy, a UFC veteran who has had a full training camp, in his home Country. Santos will likely have the advantage in grappling, but does most of his work on the feet with clean Brazilian Muay Thai striking. Lerone will keep the fight standing, look to walk down Santos with pressure and volume and spoil his UFC welcome. I expect a very close, very competitive fight, but where the odds sit currently, I love the UFC vet to outlast the rookie on a week’s notice. 

Justin Gaethje vs Rafael Fiziev 

Rafael Fiziev KO (+140) 

This weekend’s Co-Main Event features the two most prolific finishers of the Lightweight division in Justin Gaethje and Rafael Fiziev. The two men share a combined 27 career KO finishes. Gaethje holds an 83% KO rate for his professional career, and Fiziev a 67% KO rate. Fiziev is on a six fight win streak and has won three of his last four fights by KO. Gaethje however has lost two of his last three and was noticeably less durable in his last fight against Charles Oliveria. Gaethje was badly hurt and dropped by punches from Oliveira that had they been from Rafael Fiziev would have put him out cold. A man’s chin can only withstand so much, Fiziev will be the younger, fresher fighter with a more dynamic striking arsenal. One of these men will get put out Saturday night and for my money it will be Fiziev putting out Gaethje cashing my +140 ticket! 

Shore ML + Mokaev ML + Usman ML (-120) 

Odds Via Betfred Sportsbook


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