Way Too Early Fantasy Football Quarterback Rankings

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Way Too Early Fantasy Football Quarterback Rankings

Football

Way Too Early Fantasy Football Quarterback Rankings

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Hello everyone and welcome to the first edition of TWSN’s 2023 fantasy football quarterback rankings. Today, I will take a look at my top twelve quarterbacks going into next season. This will include a breakdown of this past season, as well as an outlook for next year as well. While we are a long way from the start of the 2023 season, fantasy managers can never start too early in preparing for next year’s fantasy drafts.

1. Patrick Mahomes – Kansas City Chiefs

In a close call, Patrick Mahomes just narrowly retakes his hold on the QB1 spot in my 2023 fantasy football rankings. He was electric this past season and lived up to the billing of being the best passer in the NFL. Mahomes was second in both yards per attempt and fantasy points per game. This was after a relatively down year in those areas in 2021. 

He should win the MVP vote in a landslide as well and will be playing in his 5th consecutive AFC championship game this weekend. Mahomes doesn’t have the rushing ability of Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts, but it doesn’t matter because he is near lock for 5000 passing yards and 35+ touchdowns. He isn’t a slouch in the run game either as he rushed for 358 yards and 4 touchdowns in 2022.

The biggest question on the Chiefs’ offense is if they will be able to retain wide receiver Juju Smith-Schuster. He was by far the Chiefs’ most productive receiver, although newly acquired Kadarius Toney has been heavily involved these last few games. Travis Kelce will of course be there as well but he will be 34 years old next October. He’s shown little signs of slowing down though and fantasy managers should once again expect him to be one of the best players in the NFL.

 

2. Josh Allen – Buffalo Bills

The consensus preseason QB1 coming into 2022, Josh Allen had a bit of an up and down season. Nevertheless, he was fantastic for fantasy purposes finishing as a top 12 Quarterback in every game except for one (week 18). Turnovers were an issue though as he had 19 of them, including 14 interceptions (T-2nd in the NFL). 

Last week was no different as he had two interceptions and three fumbles (one lost) against the Miami Dolphins. He’s one of the most dynamic players in the NFL, but clearly, that comes with good and bad plays.

Allen is interesting because I’m not sure any of what I just said matters for fantasy purposes. Turnovers can certainly hamper his fantasy output, but that matters little with a player like Allen. He’s run for over 1500 yards and 13 touchdowns over the last two years and has shown very little signs of slowing down. Allen is right there with Mahomes and he should be considered more of a 1b in these rankings.

 

3. Jalen Hurts – Philadelphia Eagle

Many questioned whether Jalen Hurts’ had the passing ability to be a quarterback in the NFL. He did absolutely everything he could this season to silence those doubters though ranking 13th in the NFL in passing yards and 4th in QBR. He will never be confused with Joe Burrow as a passer, nonetheless, when you factor in his rushing ability you have one of the most dynamic players in the NFL.

Furthermore, he is tied to one of the most talented offenses in the league. With AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert all secured at least for the next two seasons. Fantasy managers may become frustrated with the inconsistent target volume for these players in this offense, but it’s only a positive for Hurts. 

These three quarterbacks form a strong top tier and I see a gap between them and the rest of the names on this list. Unlike Lamar Jackson, Hurts is surrounded by plenty of talent at the skill positions which makes it hard to commit extra players to stop the run. If he takes another step forward as a passer he will be firmly in the MVP conversation.

 

4. Joe Burrow – Cincinnati Bengals

While his place in the NFL landscape was cemented last season, many felt the verdict was still out on Joe Burrow as a fantasy asset. He’s always been deadly accurate. However fantasy managers were concerned about his lack of rushing upside, and the passing volume he would have in the Bengals’ offense. 

All of these concerns should have been put to bed this season as he finished as a top 10 quarterback 11 times this year. Additionally, the Bengals’ offense began to rely more on him as they ranked 7th in pass plays per game in 2022 (up from 17th in 2021). His lack of rushing upside will keep him out of the top tier, but he still plays with two of the best wide receivers in the NFL. 

Looking toward 2023 I expect the passing offense to continue to be the focal point. Burrow is still young too and should continue to grow with his young wide receivers. He should project to have one of the safest fantasy floors next season, but may not have as much upside as the next few names on this list. 

 

5. Lamar Jackson – Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson was one of the hardest players to rank, and I admit this could change a lot before the season. After a hot start with 10 passing touchdowns in his first three games, things turned south. He threw just seven touchdowns after week four and only finished as a top 10 quarterback three times beyond that point.

Jackson is still one of the most talented quarterbacks in this league, but this has been the third year in a row he has failed to meet fantasy expectations. While he has been significantly hampered by injuries the last two seasons, he was having a relatively poor season prior to going out with a knee injury in week 13. This is far from all his fault though as the Ravens continue to fail to surround their franchise quarterback with talent at receiver.

Nonetheless, his rushing ability will always keep him in the conversation as the potential overall QB1 in fantasy. He will struggle to meet these expectations with the Baltimore receiving core the way it is. I don’t think there is any chance the Ravens let him walk in free agency either, and we have seen the success players like Jalen Hurts have had when given receiving weapons. A lot remains up in the air for Jackson, but he could be an outstanding value at a lower price tag next season.

 

6. Justin Herbert – Los Angeles Chargers

It was a strange year for Justin Herbert who didn’t live up to expectations ranking as the QB11 despite playing all 17 games. However, the same couldn’t be said for the rest of the offense as Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and left tackle Rashawn Slater all missed significant time due to injury. Herbert ultimately struggled as a result, ranking 15th in fantasy points per game but strangely eighth in expected fantasy points per game (Player Profiler). 

This suggests things weren’t quite right with Herbert, who still made outstanding throws throughout the year that reminded us just how talented he is. These struggles all came to a head though in their Wild Card matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Chargers got off to a hot start but ultimately blew a 27-point lead on their way to one of the most embarrassing losses in recent memory. 

Looking forward to 2023, head coach Brandon Staley surprisingly retained his job and will lead the Chargers once again. Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler will all likely be back as well making this one of the most potent offenses in the league again. In 2023 I expect Herbert to show why he is one of the best quarterbacks in the league, and I could see ranking him as high as fourth on this list. 

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