Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs AFC Conference Championship Statistical Preview

Dylan Buell/Getty Images

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs AFC Conference Championship Statistical Preview

Football

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs AFC Conference Championship Statistical Preview

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Dylan Buell/Getty Images

The Cincinnati Bengals will take on the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship in Arrowhead for the second straight year. Statistics may not be able to tell us everything, especially when it comes to things like injuries, but it can at least show us some trends, strengths, and weaknesses. Here is how the Bengals and Chiefs stack up against each other from a statistical perspective.

 

Rushing Offense

Cincinnati Bengals

Team Rushing Yards per Game: 97.3

Last Three Games: 92.7

 

Rush Yards per Attempt: 3.9

Last Three Games: 3.9

 

Kansas City Chiefs

Team Rushing Yards per Game: 117.4

Last Three Games: 4.7

 

Rush Yards per Attempt:  119.3

Last Three Games: 4.8

The Bengals and Chiefs are both very efficient at running the ball because of how pass oriented their offenses are, but it also makes this stat hard to judge. Either way, the Chiefs seem to be better overall in the category, and both teams got a monster week from their running backs against the Buffalo Bills and Jacksonville Jaguars in the Divisional Round, respectively. The statistics themselves show how the Chiefs are better in total yards per game and rush yards per attempt on the season, as well as in their last three games. But when you look at DVOA, it actually has the Bengals (7.5%) favored by a pretty good margin over the Chiefs (1.3%) when it comes to their running games.




Rushing Defense

Cincinnati Bengals

Opponent Rushing Yards Allowed per Game: 106.9

Last Three Games: 109.3

 

Opponent Rush Yards Allowed per Attempt: 4.2

Last Three Games: 4.0



Kansas City Chiefs

Opponent Rushing Yards Allowed per Game: 109.3

Last Three Games: 120.0

 

Opponent Rush Yards Allowed per Attempt: 4.5

Last Three Games: 5.3

The statistics, including DVOA see this category as pretty close between the teams, but agree that the Bengals have the edge. Cincinnati has allowed fewer yards per game than the Chiefs on the season by a small margin, but also fewer yards per game over their last few contests. The Bengals give up less yards per rush attempt on the season, and while the Bengals have improved their numbers over the last three games, the Chiefs have gotten worse. DVOA has the Bengals as the better run defense (-9.5%) when compared to Kansas City (-6.9%).

 

Passing Offense

Cincinnati Bengals

Team Passing Yards per Game: 259.1

Last Three Games: 208.3

 

Pass Yards per Attempt: 7.3

Last Three Games: 6.1

 

Kansas City Chiefs

Team Passing Yards per Game: 293.3

Last Three Games: 242.3

 

Pass Yards per Attempt: 7.9

Last Three Games: 7.1

Here is where the Chiefs really shine because some of their numbers not only beat the Bengals, but are the best in the league. Kansas City and Cincinnati both have elite passing games, but it is hard to rival Patrick Mahomes, who has his team averaging more passing yards per game and yards per pass attempt than the Bengals. Over the last three games, both teams drop off from their season averages, but the Chiefs are better in both. DVOA has the Chiefs as the best passing offense in the league, but just ahead of the Bills, and we saw what Cincinnati did to them. Still, though, DVOA likes the Chiefs (41.1%) passing offense by a large margin compared to the Bengals (24.9%).

 

Passing Defense

Cincinnati Bengals

Opponent Passing Yards Allowed per Game: 229.8

Last Three Games: 249.0

 

Opponent Passing Yards Allowed per Attempt: 6.6

Last Three Games: 6.5

 

Kansas City Chiefs

Opponent Passing Yards Allowed per Game: 220.1

Last Three Games: 191.7

 

Opponent Passing Yards Allowed per Attempt: 6.0

Last Three Games: 5.1

Once again, a pretty close category, but the edge will be given to the Chiefs when looking at the statistics in pass defense. The Chiefs gave up less passing yards per game up to this point this season, and also fewer yards per pass attempt. The Chiefs have actually improved quite a bit over the last three weeks than what their season average shows. DVOA seems to disagree, however, instead favoring the Bengals pass defense (-0.5%) over the Chiefs (6.5%).

 

Takeaways

Cincinnati Bengals

Takeaways per Game: 1.5

Last Three Games: 2.3



Kansas City Chiefs

Takeaways per Game: 1.2

Last Three Games: 2.0

One important thing in football games, especially in the playoffs, is turnovers. The Cincinnati Bengals have been great at this as of late, and the Chiefs have also seen improvement from their season numbers over the past few games. The Bengals still average more takeaways per game on the season, as well as over the last three games, and could be the key to making it to the Super Bowl.

 

Statistics according to NFL.com, teamrankings.com, and Football Outsiders DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average).

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