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It is the last Thursday Night Football game of the year, and it features the surging Dallas Cowboys heading to take on the downward trending Tennessee Titans. The Titans lost their lead in the AFC South and will need a win here to try and make Week 18 against the Jacksonville Jaguars for the division. The Cowboys have a playoff spot secured, and they also have a chance at the NFC East title, but will need to win out and hope the Philadelphia Eagles lose out. Playoff stakes are on the line in this one on Thursday.
As mentioned, it has been a rough stretch for the Titans, as with their loss to the Houston Texans in Week 16 they have now lost five straight games. With Ryan Tannehill out for the season, it was Malik Willis who got the start against the Texans and will be starting against the Cowboys. It wasn’t exactly a great game against Houston, as he completed 14-of-23 passes for only 99 yards and threw two interceptions. Where he was productive was on the ground with 43 yards on seven attempts as well as a rushing touchdown. That may work to the Titans’ advantage a bit, as the Cowboys have allowed the 15th most rush yards to opposing quarterbacks with 280 yards. Still, Dallas has a defensive line led by Micah Parsons that can get off the edge and stop Willis before he has a chance to take off. With the lack of a receiving game, all attention will be on the ground game.
That ground game also will feature Derrick Henry, who has had three consecutive games over 100 yards rushing, even in the losses. The run defense for the Cowboys hasn’t been fantastic, as they have allowed an average of 130 per game. Even with that, they tighten up in the red zone and have only allowed eight rushing touchdowns on the season. If Henry can’t score, it extremely limits the Tennessee offense.
Just like the Dallas defense, the Titans defense has only allowed eight rushing touchdowns on the season but are also stout in all areas, allowing only 80.1 yards per game. So, Dallas will see more production from their running backs as receivers as Tennessee has allowed 6.3 yards per reception to opposing backs, and that plays into the hand of Tony Pollard. Compared to Ezekiel Elliott who has 21 targets, Pollard has 54 in which he has caught 39 for 371 yards. Overall, this will be a pass-heavy game for Dallas, and they are capable of finding that success.
The Tennessee secondary has been the weakest link of their defense, they have allowed the second most pass yards in the NFL with 4,194 and 26 touchdowns. Specifically, rookie Roger McCreary has been a top target for opposing teams to target as he has allowed a 70.5% completion percentage for a team-high 715 yards. Whether it is CeeDee Lamb or Michael Gallup matched up against him, Dak Prescott will be able to rely on both receivers to find success against the rookie. Even tight ends Tennessee has struggled with as they have allowed 1,025 yards to the position, the most in the NFL. That plays right into another strength of Dallas, as Dalton Schultz is the second highest targeted receiver and has the third most receiving yards on the team.
The Cowboys have a team set to outpace the Titans with their dynamic passing attack. As long as they don’t overlook this Titans team on a short week, they will get the victory.
