Muhammad Mokaev (-645) vs Malcolm Gordon (+480), Pick: Muhammad Mokaev (-645)
Before you come at me crazy about these odds being unplayable, I wouldn’t play this as a single. This is rather the safest fight on the card to add to your parlay. Mokaev is a young talent that some are already viewing as a future champion after just two fights in the UFC. While a 22 year old with only eight pro fights under his belt may sound like a young inexperienced fighter, Mokaev had a long, undefeated 23-0 Amateur MMA career, and fights with the veteran experience and decision making of someone with 31 fights under his belt. While Malcolm Gordon is no slouch, and certainly a step up in competition for Mokaev, he’s truly just a middle of the road journeyman Flyweight. Every time he faces top 15 competition he comes up short, with back to back losses to Amir Albazi and Sumudaerji, and I firmly believe Mokaev to be a future ranked flyweight for quite some time to come.
Armen Petrosyan (-210) vs AJ Dobson (+180), Pick: Armen Petrosyan (-210)
Both of these fighters burst onto the UFC scene with big first round finishes on Dana White’s Contender Series. Petrosyan with a headkick victory over Kaloyan Kolev in 2021, and Dobson with a Rear Naked Choke finish of Hashem Arkhagha that same season. Petrosyan got off to a better start in his UFC career with a victory over fellow Contender Series prospect Gregory “Robocop” Rodrigues. Dobson’s debut did not go as well, losing a Unanimous Decision to Jacob Malkoun at UFC 271. This matchup is a classic grappler vs striker matchup, while Dobson certainly has lots of power in his hands, he will be outclassed on the feet by the kickboxing prowess of Petrosyan, and Petrosyan already proved successful against a much better grappler in Gregory Rodrigues.
Makhmud Muradov (+190) vs Caio Borralho (-225), Pick: Caio Borralho (-225)
Another Contender series vet, and the man to hand Armen Petrosyan his first UFC loss, Caio Borralho, will take on Uzbek striker Makhmud Muradov. Borralho became a fan favorite to hardcores before even debuting in the UFC after winning not one but two fights on Dana White’s Contender series. After a dominating decision victory over Aaron Jeffery, Borralho would be brought back just one month later and finish Jesse Murray with grounded strikes in the first round, earning him his UFC contract. He has won twice more since signing with the UFC, with wins over Gadzhi Omargadzhiev and Armen Petrosyan. While Muradov is absolutely Borralho’s toughest test on the feet to date, he has very identifiable holes in his takedown defense and submission defense. While fans may prefer to see Borralho throw hands himself, he has an easy path to victory smothering Muradov on the ground, similar to his gameplan for Petrosyan.
Beneil Dariush (+165) vs Mateusz Gamrot (-195), Pick: Mateusz Gamrot (-195)
This one is a pretty cut and dry matchup of two high paced grapplers with heavy hands on the feet. Gamrot is simply better than Dariush everywhere, especially wrestling, which both of them are known to win their fights with. Averaging 4.83 takedowns per 15 minutes compared to Dariush’s 2.11, with higher takedown accuracy and defense percentage also. The only hope for Dariush would be to keep the fight on the feet, which if you’ve watched a Mateusz Gamrot fight, you know simply won’t happen. We’ve seen this story play out too many times, the young contender fighting the aging veteran with a similar skillset. The torch is always passed. Gamrot at -195 is too good to ignore. Play this as a single and throw it in your parlay.
Petr Yan (-305) vs Sean O’Malley (+255), Pick: Petr Yan (-305)
As big of a fan of the sugar show as I am, I have to be an objective MMA journalist when giving you guys bets, and Sean simply is not beating Petr Yan. I currently have Petr Yan at number nine on our TWSN P4P rankings, once having him as high as number six. O’Malley on the other hand, while collecting more highlight reel finishes than Yan, was fighting the likes of Kris Moutinho and Thomas Almeida. O’Malley attempted to take a step up in competition against veteran Pedro Munhoz, and appeared frozen. None of the flashy striking seen against the tomato cans was even attempted again Munhoz. Luckily for O’Malley the fight was stopped in the 2nd round due to an eye poke, because I believe O’Malley was on the way to losing a decision and never getting a shot at this Petr Yan fight. Simply too big of a step up for Sean, and the odds makers are still keeping it at odds I’m willing to touch.
5 Leg Parlay: +395
Odds Via DraftKings