We are just about a third of the way in the fantasy football season, and I am here to prepare you for Week Six. Last week, I told you to buy low on Gabe Davis and sell high on T.J. Hockenson. Today, I have even more players for you to buy low and sell high on to win your league or even win your matchup if you bought low on Davis and sold high on Hockenson.
Players to Buy:
1. A.J. Dillon
The Green Bay Packers have leaned on the run game and up until Week Five, A.J. Dillon was the 1B with Aaron Jones as the 1A in the backfield. Both running backs were able to reach over 50% of the Packers total snaps, but something changed last week. For the first time this season, Jones played 73% of snaps, while Dillon played a measly 32% of snaps. I’m taking last week’s London game against the New York Giants as a fluke for Dillon’s involvement. It could be that the Packers weren’t in a positive game script for most of the second half in the game. Jones is the guy they rely on in the passing game while Dillon has been their guy on the ground, so they needed to pass more as the game winded down.
With last week’s game being a fluke for the running back snap share in Green Bay, I expect Dillon to return to his normal value at the very least. He’ll see 15-20 touches a game, but here’s the kicker. If Aaron Jones misses anytime for injury, Dillon will put up high running back one, Derrick Henry type numbers.
2. Christian Kirk
Christian Kirk started off the year on fire after becoming one of the highest paid wide receivers in the league. But after the last couple of weeks, some owners might be looking for someone they deem as better. Now is the time to grab Kirk off those owners before he returns back to his usual production. In weeks one through three Kirk was the sixth-best wide receiver in fantasy, but the last two weeks he’s only been the wide receiver 72.
Let’s get one thing straight, Kirk’s target share is as consistent as it gets outside of a weird Week Five game in a loss to the Houston Texans, who entered the game in Jacksonville as a seven point underdog. Like Dillon, I credit Kirk’s last week’s performance to a fluke. He caught one pass off three targets after averaging nine targets through the first four weeks. Kirk will continue to be fantastic the rest of the season, which is why I recommend buying him lower than his value will hit in the coming weeks.
3. Amon-Ra St. Brown
Amon- Ra St. Brown is a guy who has slowly fallen off fantasy football managers’ radars. After missing Week Four to injury and being on a snap count in Week Five, some people don’t realize truly how dominant St. Brown was for the Detroit Lions. Despite being on a snap count last week, ending in only catching four balls for 18 yards, he was still involved and running routes when he was in the game. Although only playing 32% of snaps last week, he still had a 38% target rate per route run.
St. Brown is going to continue as the de facto number one target in Detroit and continue his constant elite wide receiver one production. This is probably the only week you’ll be able to buy him at his lowest value, so buy him low and reap the rewards.
Players to Sell:
1. Marquise Brown
Marquise Brown has been awesome for fantasy football managers so far this season, especially in the last three weeks where he exceeded 20 points in all three games. So, why does he make my sell list? Brown has been a target monster in each week; however, there is some uncertainty of whether he can keep up that target share and production. Veteran and star wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins anticipates his return in Week Seven.
This is the perfect time to sell him high, not only because of his dominant performances the last three weeks, but also, Hopkins does not return to the Arizona Cardinals this week. He isn’t eligible to play until Week Seven. The reason you should sell him ahead of Week Six instead of Week Seven is that once the news comes out next week that Hopkins will officially return, people will be more reluctant to buy Marquise Brown. Not only that, we have no clue what stat line Brown puts up in Week Six. Odds are if he busts this week, you will not be able to sell him at his highest value next week. Sell off these huge performances a week before Hopkins returns.
2. Nick Chubb
This one may get some eye rolls, but hear me out. Nick Chubb has come up huge for his fantasy football managers so far, but his upcoming opposing defenses as well as his positive game scripts the rest of the way makes me think that this is his highest value of the entire season. In each of the last five weeks, Chubb has played against bottom 12 teams with the least fantasy points allowed to running backs. This will lower his efficiency from an unsustainable 6.1 yards per carry.
It only gets tougher from here, especially in terms of game scripts and run defenses with matchups against the New England Patriots, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the next six weeks leading up to the return of new Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson. Now, I’m not saying Nick Chubb can’t keep it up. All I am saying is that I would rather sell him high now before his schedule gets tougher, and he might not perform comparable to the way he has so far this season.
3. Taysom Hill
Why is Taysom Hill a top waiver target for some people? It’s all beyond me, but if you do have him, this is your message to sell him for whatever higher value player you can get. After scoring 35 points last week, there are a lot of managers out there that don’t realize the role that Hill has in the New Orleans Saints offense. That role has been trying to get a rather slow offense move at a bit of a higher pace. Hill does not have the week-to-week consistency needed for him to be a viable plug-and-play on my team.
Now if you need a plug-and-play tight end, there are some players that you can realistically either trade Hill for or grab off your waiver wire with a higher floor and a solid upside. One can be Daniel Bellinger. He has had at least three targets in each of the last three weeks and has two total touchdowns on the year, with one of them being rushing. There is Evan Engram, who when he gets targeted can do some big things. Last week he caught six of 10 targets for 69 yards and I expect it to continue. The big thing to remember here is to not sell Taysom Hill for pennies on the dollar. If you don’t get a fair trade, keep him. However, if you receive a guy that is of higher value, then I would smash on that offer.