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Players To Buy:

Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson has been on a bit of a cold streak over the last three weeks. That ship will get right back on course at home against the Cleveland Browns this week and into the rest of the year. The Ravens have been stagnant and have had trouble keeping leads this season and winning games, so changes will be made in Baltimore. 

We’ve seen the improvements that Jackson has made, and we know that the struggles in his last few games did not begin until the fourth quarter. I think it’s a minor issue to fix because he performs so well in the other quarters. Continuing his success through four quarters should be an easy fix for him. Jackson will look to get right back on track, which leaves a perfect window to buy. With Rashod Bateman returning in the next week, Jackson’s upside can hit his unbelievable start to the season.

Joe Mixon

Joe Mixon’s efficiency is finally hitting well past where I hoped he hit. Through the last two weeks, Mixon has been extremely efficient on the ground, posting a 5.6 yards per carry rate. The problem the last couple of weeks was his lack of touches because he’s only had 22 carries through those games. The New Orleans Saints have a stout run defense, which could be a reason for why he only saw eight carries last week. Despite this, Mixon has averaged nearly a 78% snap percentage in the Cincinnati backfield. I, personally, value his snap percentage and increased efficiency over his lack of carries. The carries will naturally increase with his high snap percentage. 

Joe Mixon will be a three down back once his carries return to 15-20-plus per game. His involvement in the passing game makes his upside unlike most running backs in the league. I think the carries will be more reliant in the coming weeks, and I expect Mixon to be a top five to 10 running back the rest of the season.

Curtis Samuel

Curtis Samuel has come up huge for the Washington Commanders this season, even in games where he is found to have some inconsistency on the offensive side of the ball. That is exactly what Samuel did to allow people the opportunity to buy him low. In the first three weeks, he was the eighth-best wide receiver, which is a feat no one expected out of him. Through five weeks he mellowed out to become the wide receiver 16 but only caught two passes for six yards last week which plummeted his fantasy total. 

However, the most intriguing part of Curtis Samuel is the fact that he’s almost always at the top of the team in target share percentage with 22.7% even with the lack of opportunity in a bad game. He’s a mid-wide receiver two with upside the rest of the way. I would pounce on an opportunity to buy him. 

Players To Sell:

Brandon Aiyuk

Last week, Brandon Aiyuk caught eight passes off 11 targets for 83 yards and two touchdowns to finish as a top five wide receiver for Week Six. Through the first five weeks, he was the wide receiver 45 and did not have the opportunity to succeed in a crowded offense with a quarterback that doesn’t generally throw the ball as often as some pass heavy teams. Last week Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle all saw 10 or more targets. 

With being the third target on the San Francisco 49ers, I don’t think he’ll see a consistent level of volume to be a reliable starter on your roster. That is why if you plan on starting him moving forward, I’d trade him for someone who has a weekly floor with enough volume and target share in an offense to sustain a mid to low wide receiver two value. I would look for someone who is more established as an every week wide receiver two rather than Aiyuk who has been a wide receiver four or three at best. 

Gabe Davis

Remember two weeks ago when I told you to buy Gabe Davis? Well now it has been back-to-back weeks of monster performances for Davis since telling you to buy him. If you listened, here is your chance to sell him higher than ever. When I told you to buy Davis, I expected his target share to rise given the amount of time he’s on the field per game. However, he was never able to rise to the height to make him a reliable start, and his recent scoring success with three touchdowns in the last two weeks gives you many options for potential suitors. 

See a theme here with Aiyuk and Davis? By selling these wide receivers high, you are turning boom and bust players into reliable starters with nearly the same ceiling. With Davis, you either bought him for pennies or you drafted him, and he’s finally seeming to hit his stride. However, there is a pattern with these guys to not always continue their success after a few outlier games. That is what I think we have with Davis. He’ll have his boom games, but you won’t start him until the week after he has a monster performance. End the game of cat and mouse trying to predict Davis’ performances and sell for someone that you won’t have to predict.

Darnell Mooney

Darnell Mooney has looked solid the last three weeks after looking droppable in the first three weeks. After catching seven of his 12 targets, it looks like the perfect time to sell on his performance. Let me start off by saying that Mooney’s only value is the amount of times he catches the ball. He has no yardage upside and has yet to find the end zone. On top of that, Justin Fields’ highest passing yardage this season was 208 and has only passed for two touchdowns in his last five games. Which can never spell success for his weapons. 

Last week, Mooney had a 46% target share and yet only finished with 13.8 points in Points Per Reception (PPR) leagues. Sell him for whatever higher value you can get because with the Chicago Bears upcoming opponents, he’ll look droppable very soon.