Houston Texans vs Cleveland Browns: OVER/45.5
The Houston Texans allow the most rushing yards per game this season at 159.5 yards. Cleveland is getting Nick Chubb this game, and while Kareem Hunt will get involved, expect Chubb to get at least 15-20 carries against this poor Texans run defense. The Browns are also coming off a bad week 9 performance where they only scored 6 points against the Las Vegas Raiders. They have scored single digits two other times this season, and they have exploded for 30+ in the following contest after being held down. Expect the Browns to score 30 points in this game, and even with bad weather, Deshaun Watson will exploit Cleveland’s secondary enough to hit the over.
Buffalo Bills vs Arizona Cardinals: OVER/56.5
This is a matchup of two high scoring teams. The Cardinals score nearly 30 points a game while the Bills score about 27 points a game. The Bills just combined for 78 points in last week’s game against the Seattle Seahawks, and this is a game where the Cardinals and Bills will easily score at least 60 points. Arizona has scored 30+ points in 5 out of 8 games this year, while the Bills have scored 30+ points in 5 out of 9 games. Arizona have also given up 30+ points on defense in back to back weeks.
Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers: OVER/45.5
This is my third OVER for this week, but I am not a fan of some of these spreads. It is a crazy low total for two teams that have competent offenses. The Steelers do have an incredible pass rush that should exploit Cincinnati’s weak offensive line, but that line has improved over the last few weeks, and they should do just enough to allow Joe Burrow to throw the ball. The Steelers are going to easily score against the Bengals any way they want too, and Cincinnati will score just enough to hit the over.