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Josh Allen Will be the Next Breakout Fantasy QB

Every year there is a new quarterback that manages to have a top fantasy season. In 2018, the quarterback was Patrick Mahomes; in 2019, it was Lamar Jackson. This year the quarterback may be the Bills own Josh Allen. 

In 2019, Josh Allen recorded the 7th most fantasy points in standard scoring. He played all 16 games and averaged 18.6 points a game. Allen made a large leap in his passing yards from 2018 to 2019, and I expect he will do it again for the 2020 season.

In 2018 he threw for 2074 for yards, but he only played 12 games so total yards may not be the best representation of improvement. To see a fair comparison between his rookie season one must look at his average yards per game compared from 2018 to 2019.

In 2018 Allen threw for 172.8 yards per game, and in 2019 he threw for 193.1 yards per game. When Josh Allen finished the 2019 season, he saw a 11.74% increase in yards per game compared to his rookie season.

Allen has had accuracy problems since his rookie season; in his first season he took 320 passing attempts and only completed 169 of those throws giving him a completion percentage of 52.8%. He managed to increase his accuracy this year by 6%.

With the help he is getting this year, I believe that his accuracy will take a big jump and possible reach up to a 61% completion percentage.

Looking at who Allen has had to work with, it is fair to say that he has not had the best talent around him throughout his career. In 2018 the Bills only had one receiver who played all 16 games in Zay Jones, who had a total of 652 receiving yards. The next leading receiver on the team was Robert foster with 541 receiving yards. 

In 2019 the Bills’ leading receiver was a 30-year-old John Brown, who put up 1060 receiving yards and six touchdowns. The next leading receiver on the 2019 Bills roster was Cole Beasley with 778 receiving yards.

This offseason the Bills finally put some talent around Josh Allen in Stefon Diggs via a trade with the Vikings. In 2019, Diggs put up 1130 receiving yards and six touchdowns. Those numbers may not seem that spectacular until you take a deeper look.

Diggs recorded those yards on only 63 receptions giving him an average of 17.9 yards per reception. Adding a top 15 receiver in Stefon Diggs will definitely lead to an increase in production from Josh Allen. 

Allen finally has the deep threat he needs that will force defenses to spread the field with Diggs who will force teams to key in on him to prevent him from being able to break off. This will lead to more opportunities for John Brown and Cole Beasley. Allen now has two receivers capable of recording at least 1000 yards in the 2020 season.

Brace Hemmelgarn/USA TODAY Sports

Josh Allen also has the opportunity to score very efficient fantasy points from his ability to run with the football. Last year, Allen rushed for 510 yards which was a 19.17% decrease from his rookie year. 

I believe that last year was just a down year for Allen when it comes to rushing yards. This year, with Diggs commanding so much attention from the opposing defense, Allen will have more opportunities to be able to find holes to take the ball downfield himself.

Josh Allen has the potential to bring himself to the next level this season. He has already proven that he is a top 10 fantasy quarterback without any talented receivers around him and now he has been gifted a top 15 WR in Stefon Diggs. This year I can see Josh Allen easily being a top five fantasy QB by the end of the season.


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