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A Midsummer Night’s Revision: Checking (and Fixing) My Preseason Predictions

It isn’t easy to look at a season, especially one as long as a baseball season, and before it begins try and predict how it ends. Luckily for us, baseball gives us the All-Star break, a not-quite midseason break, which allows us to reset, look at the season to this point, and make some new predictions (you can read my original ones here).

NL East

Okay, so I fell into the trap that all Mets fans fall into every March. Combine that with my bias against the other teams in this division, and I made quite a mess out of these predictions, and I own that, and fully blame it on me bleeding orange and blue. Let’s try this again:

Old Prediction

  1. Nationals
  2. Mets
  3. Braves
  4. Phillies
  5. Marlins

New Prediction

  1. Braves
  2. Phillies
  3. Nationals
  4. Mets
  5. Marlins

I know the Phillies entered the break a half game up, but the Braves are 27-14 against the NL East while the Phillies are 18-21, and the Braves run differential is 50 runs better than the Phillies. It’s their division to lose at this point.

NL Central

The second best division in baseball is going to be a fight to the end, and barring a collapse the losing team of the fight will be fighting to play the winning team in the NLDS this October, that is, if they survive the Wild Card game.

Old Prediction

  1. Cubs
  2. Brewers
  3. Cardinals
  4. Reds
  5. Pirates

New Prediction

  1. Cubs
  2. Brewers
  3. Cardinals
  4. Reds
  5. Pirates

Before I get into the meat, yes I think the red hot Reds (sorry, had to) are real, no I don’t think they can catch the Cardinals, yes they will catch the Pirates. As for the Brewers, it would be great to watch them beat out the Cubs and get a potential 1-seed in the playoffs and then play the Cubs again in the NLDS, but unfortunately the Cubs are just too good for that to happen.

NL West

Your guess is as good as mine. This is the wild West for sure. Four teams separated by just as many games.

Old Prediction

  1. Giants
  2. Dodgers
  3. Rockies
  4. Diamondbacks
  5. Padres

New Prediction

  1. ?????
  2. ?????
  3. ?????
  4. ?????
  5. Padres

There is one certainty here in the NL West, the Padres will come in last. As for the rest of the division, I am dumbfounded. The Rockies are hot, but does that mean they are playing their best baseball now? Can they keep it up? The Giants are still in the race, even though they have been far from 100%, especially when speaking of their pitching staff. Does that mean that’s how they are this season? Or is their ceiling much higher?

Please Don’t Hold Me To This

  1. Dodgers
  2. Rockies
  3. Giants
  4. Diamondbacks
  5. Do I Have to Type Padres Again?

NL Playoffs

Wild Card Game

Rockies over @Brewers

I’m taking Freeland over Guerra and Charlie/Nolan/Trevor/DJ over Aguilar/Cain/Yelich

NLDS

Cubs over Rockies

The Cubs are just too good, and they will take the ball at Coors and drive it into next week. Plus, Freeland will be unavailable to pitch two games in the series.

@Dodgers over Braves

Dansby and Freddie are ready for their turn, and the Dodgers are going to have a tough late season battle to wear them out, while the Braves will be fresh as rested as they will sail by the Phillies, but Machado is in Los Angeles and he is the real deal, at least real enough to beat the Braves.

NLCS

Cubs over Dodgers

The Cubs are young, the Cubs are good and the Cubs have been here before. The Dodgers are young, good, and haven’t, and Machado helps them, but can’t deliver them to the promised land this year. The Cubs are  just plain better.

AL East

All you need to know about how good the Red Sox and Yankees are can be summed up in one sentence: The Rays are a game over .500 and 18 games out of the division.

Old Prediction

  1. Yankees
  2. Red Sox
  3. Rays
  4. Blue Jays
  5. Orioles

New Prediction

  1. Red Sox
  2. Yankees
  3. Rays
  4. Blue Jays
  5. Orioles

The O’s suck, and without Machado they are going to suck even more. The Rays and Jays are just way too far to make any sort of comeback, and the Red Sox are just plain better than the Yankees. They’ll both be seeing October, and the fight to not have to play in the Wild Card game will be the toughest end of season fight outside of the NL West.

AL Central

Well, the Royals are bad. The White Sox are slightly less bad. The Tigers are even less bad, but still bad. The Twins exist. I labeled them a “contender” in the preseason. I was wrong. Roll Tribe.

Old Prediction

  1. Indians
  2. Twins
  3. Royals
  4. Tigers
  5. White Sox

New Prediction

  1. Indians
  2. Twins
  3. Tigers
  4. White Sox
  5. Royals

There really isn’t anything to say besides that we’ll see the Indians in October.

AL West

We have found the best division in baseball! Four teams over .500 and the Rangers! In my preseason predictions I wrote “This is definitely a .500 team (the Mariners) that with a streak of luck and a healthy season can do a little bit of damage, and possibly even wake up in the middle of August thinking ‘Hey we can actually make the playoffs!’ and then possibly even following through on that thought.” At least one thing came true.

Old Prediction

  1. Astros
  2. Angels
  3. Mariners
  4. Rangers
  5. As

New Prediction

  1. Astros
  2. Mariners
  3. As
  4. Angels
  5. Rangers

The Mariners are good, but not good enough to catch the Astros. The As are hot, but not good enough to catch the Mariners, as good beats hot in the long-run.. The Angels could catch the As. The Rangers are going to catch a flight home come September 30th.

AL Playoffs

Wild Card Game

@Yankees over Mariners

It pains me to pick this game, but the Yankees, with Severino on the bump, at home, are just oo hard to pick against.

ALDS

Red Sox over Yankees

Boston is just a better team, but ultimately it comes down to pitching depth, and the depth of the rotation. Boston wins that

@Astros over Indians

Duh. No contest. Four games at most.

ALCS

Red Sox over Astros

As much as I love the Astros, and Verlander, and Keuchel (who just found himself), the Red Sox are just an overpowering force.

World Series

Red Sox over Cubs in 6

As I said, the Red Sox are an overpowering force. A mere baseball team can’t stop that.

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